02

Read the past

History cannot predict, but it can reveal risk.

7 articles in this rubric.

The archive’s core idea

Without history, you cannot manage risk

History cannot promise profit, but it can expose repeated decisions, fear, euphoria and error.

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Mt. Gox · June 19, 2011

When an exchange printed a one-cent bitcoin price

The network kept working while a compromised venue showed the world a distorted market price.

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Bitcoinica · March–July 2012

Three breaches: the warning that was not enough

How repeated compromises turned a technical weakness into a crisis of custody, records, and responsibility.

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BIP 66 · July 2015

Six Confirmations That Never Existed

How miners signalled support for new rules while building on an invalid block.

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Hypothesis · UTXO age

Dormant Coins as an Issuance Buffer

A hypothesis about old, unmoved BTC—and why output age cannot prove key loss.

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2018–2026 · Market periods

Crash, Silence, Acceleration: Bitcoin’s History by Period

What happened in 2018–2020, 2020–2021, 2021–2022, 2023–2024, and 2025–2026, without a price forecast.

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Risk · Reserves, redemption, and trust

When a “Stable” Coin Loses Its Stability

Why the same-looking depeg can mean a temporary liquidity break, a reserve problem, or the collapse of the design itself.

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