02

Read the past

History cannot predict, but it can reveal risk.

11 articles in this rubric.

The archive’s core idea

Without history, you cannot manage risk

History cannot promise profit, but it can expose repeated decisions, fear, euphoria and error.

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Mt. Gox · June 19, 2011

When an exchange printed a one-cent bitcoin price

The network kept working while a compromised venue showed the world a distorted market price.

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Bitcoinica · March–July 2012

Three breaches: the warning that was not enough

How repeated compromises turned a technical weakness into a crisis of custody, records, and responsibility.

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Bitcoin Core · 2024–2026

Fix First, Disclose Later

How a dangerous block-validation bug was repaired before details were published and disclosed after the vulnerable branch reached end of life.

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BIP 66 · July 2015

Six Confirmations That Never Existed

How miners signalled support for new rules while building on an invalid block.

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Hypothesis · UTXO age

Dormant Coins as an Issuance Buffer

A hypothesis about old, unmoved BTC—and why output age cannot prove key loss.

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2018–2026 · Market periods

Crash, Silence, Acceleration: Bitcoin’s History by Period

What happened in 2018–2020, 2020–2021, 2021–2022, 2023–2024, and 2025–2026, without a price forecast.

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Risk · Reserves, redemption, and trust

When a “Stable” Coin Loses Its Stability

Why the same-looking depeg can mean a temporary liquidity break, a reserve problem, or the collapse of the design itself.

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Mississippi and Alabama · May–August 2026

Two Small Towns and One Miner: Why One Waits and the Other Protests

How the same technology became a possible utility customer in Amory and a source of conflict for residents near Somerville.

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Liquid · September 6–11, 2026

When the Signatures Were Real but the Coins Were Not

How an Elements bug allowed about 4,000 unbacked L-BTC to be created and why valid signatures did not stop a payout of real BTC.

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Eclair · Release 0.14.3 · September 14, 2026

When a Lightning Channel Peer Could Make You Overpay

Why Eclair 0.14.3 is a security release and how bugs in channel closing, splicing, and on-the-fly funding could affect a node's balance.

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